The Georgia Senate Runoff Elections Forecast

Photo Credit: Raphael Warnock, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

By: Logan Phillips

Launched: November 9th

Georgia is primed Senate elections are heading for a historic run-off in January, that are primed to single-handedly decide the winner of the Senate. Republicans Incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler managed to just hold off a furious challenge of Doug Collins. She will now face Democrat Raphael Warnock, who led all candidates with 33% of the vote. In the other Senate Race, Democrat Jon Ossoff kept incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue just below the 50.0% he needed to win the election outright.

In the Forecast, I’m assuming for the sake of convenience that Republicans will win North Carolina and Alaska. However, while North Carolina is almost certainly out of reach, Democrats still have a genuine shot in Alaska. If they win an upset in the Great Frontier state, their chance of winning the Senate will go up considerably, and will be reflected below.

Otherwise, Democrats will need to win both races in Georgia to tie Republicans with fifty Senators. Kamala Harris would break the tie as Vice President, and give Democrats a Senate Majority.

Why Take My Word for It?

Race to the WH was one of the most accurate forecast in the 2020 election. We outperformed the gold standard, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, in predicting the final margin for states in the Senate and Presidential elections. The Georgia Forecast, like the Senate and Presidential Forecast before it, was designed by Editor in Chief Logan Phillips, who previously studied Presidential Campaign Management at Columbia University with Karine Jean Pierre, who is now Kamala Harris’s Chief of Staff. Earlier, he interned on President Obama's Scheduling and Advance team in the White House, and organized for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign.