The Senate Forecast

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives:

The Democratic Party’s Senate Majority rest on a razor's edge, tied with Republicans with fifty seats apiece, with the tie broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. Republicans can capture the Senate if they seize just one seat without losing one of their own. RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and correctly anticipated that Democrats would win both the Senate and White House as early as May, and that Biden would narrowly win Arizona and Georgia as early as June. On average, it was closer to the final result than the traditional gold standard, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times. Finally, we launched interactive forecasts for the most high profile Senate races, including, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We also now have a forecast for the House of Representatives.