The Top Ten Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip Parties in 2022

New Edition: March 18th

By Logan Phillips, Editor in Chief.

Read our last version here

In 2018, Democrats triumphed in the House, winning the Congressional elections by the largest popular vote margin in any midterm year since the Watergate Scandal of the 1970s. Even with such a historic victory, they still fell short of winning the Senate, losing one seat overall.

This was hardly an outlier. In 5 of the last 13 midterms, the party that lost the popular vote in the House managed to gain at least one seat in the Senate. The unique nature of each cycle's political battleground matters just as much as the national headwinds.

We consider the fight for the 2022 Senate majority to be a tossup. Republicans are favored to win the popular vote, especially now that they have taken a 2% lead in the national generic ballot. However, Democrats have several innate advantages unique to this cycle.

First, they only need fifty votes to keep the majority, thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris while Republicans need to get to fifty-one seats. Second, every Democratic Senator in a remotely competitive race is running for re-election, while Republicans in Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania have decided to retire. Third, the specific 34 states that happen to be up this cycle, favor Democrats.

To fully understand the 2022 political battleground, you have to look beyond the national races, and follow the specific states that are up in 2022 and the unique dynamics of each Senate race. Here's our current list of the ten seats that are most likely to flip.

In the graphics below, the Projected Margin refers to our Forecast prediction for the final margin of victory on election day. Chance of Winning refers to the number of times each party wins the state in 50,000 simulations of the election. To learn more, read our 2022 Senate Forecast, which is updated daily.

1. Pennsylvania – Open Seat, Held by Republicans

Chance of Flipping Parties: 54%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 1st
No Change
State Forecast - Live

In the last two midterm cycles, Democrats have excelled in the Keystone state, winning blowout victories far beyond what would be expected given the national environment. They might need to do it again to win Pennsylvania in 2022, because the state leans slightly towards the Republican party relative to the national vote based on its electoral history over the last six years. 

This election would likely be out of play for Democrats were it not for Senator Toomey’s decision to retire. Our forecast would have given them just a 23% chance, down from the 53% chance they have today. Instead, Toomey left an open seat in one of the nation’s most competitive states.

A win in Pennsylvania could provide Democrats with the breathing room they badly need. They control exactly fifty Senate seats; losing even one seat will give the Republican party control of the Senate. If they can't flip Pennsylvania or any other seat, then they would need to defend all four of their most vulnerable incumbents.  The more ambitious among the Democrat faithful will also be laser-focused on Pennsylvania as a golden opportunity to obtain a 51st seat, a prospect that has become more attractive after Joe Manchin sunk the Build Back Better bill in December.

Both primaries are contested. Republicans are led by TV Celebrity Doctor Mehmet Oz and Bridgewater CEO David McCormick. Both have their strengths for the GOP primary. Oz is a gifted communicator and political outsider. McCormick has ties to both the Bush and Trump wings of the party. He was the Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under George W. Bush, and is married to Dina Powell, Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.

In the Democratic primary, progressive Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is the frontrunner, and faces a fierce challenge from Representative Conor Lamb. Fetterman has taken a clear lead in the polling and has built an enormous war chest thanks to an impressive army of small-dollar donors. Nonetheless, because of a rising fear among some Democratic party establishment that Fetterman might underperform in the general election, the state party has begun to coalesce around Lamb. Fetterman backers argue that he is the type of untraditional candidate that could thrive, and his anti-establishment bona fide would position him to win back some of the white non-college-educated voters who left the party to vote for Trump.

2.  Nevada –Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 42%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 6th
Change (+4)
State Forecast - Live

Democrats are on a hot streak in Nevada. They have won every statewide election since 2014. However, that has given some the mistaken impression that the Silver State is far more favorable for the Democratic party than it actually is. Their victories may have been driven by their advantage in the national popular vote. Nevada voters have actually voted more for Republicans than the national popular vote in 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014.

To take Nevada, Republicans will have to beat a tough opponent - Senator Cortez-Masto (D), who became the first Latina in history to win a Senate seat six years ago. Her opponent will likely be former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R), who ran a surprisingly close race in 2018, against now-Governor Steve Sisolak.

Cortez-Masto's position is stronger today than it was in December. She was trailing in polls, where Laxalt emerged as the favorite. She has since re-taken the lead and posted impressive fundraising in 2021, out-raising Laxalt with $18.2 million to his $2.7 million. While their polling numbers have been falling nationally, Democrats might be gaining ground in Nevada, as a direct result of the state's recent economic gain. Few states were hit harder economically by the coronavirus pandemic than Nevada, which relies on income from densely populated indoor casino tourism. Now, Nevada’s economy is roaring back, in one of the nation’s best recoveries.

Cortez-Masto embraced Governor Steve Sisolak’s (D) recent decision to relax pandemic restrictions, including ending his state-wide mask mandate. “This is the right call,” she said. “Nevadans have worked hard to fight Omicron and keep our communities safe. As a result, numbers are trending in the right direction. Now’s the time to ease surge precautions.”

3.  Arizona: Senator Mark Kelly (D)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 37%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 3rd
No Change
State Forecast - Live

Former Astronaut Mark Kelly rocketed onto the political stage in 2020 and blew past Senator Martha McSally on the strength of a record-breaking fundraising effort powered by a small-dollar donor machine more reminiscent of a presidential campaign than a bid for the Senate. Kelly’s victory in 2020 showcased a stunning shift in Arizona, a state that was once one of the nation’s most conservative, and bored the origins of the Reagan Revolution decades before it took root nationwide. Democrats now control both Senate seats in the Grand Canyon State, which had previously elevated only one Democrat to the Senate from 1962 to 2017.

Make no mistake, the Republican party remains strong in Arizona, and the state still tilts slightly to the right. Kelly will need to run just as strong of a campaign to secure a full six-year term. On the early indicators, Kelly looks strong. He’s raised an enormous number of small-dollar donors once again. He is polling ahead of the competition. In the last election, he won Arizona by 2.1% more than Joe Biden.

The top contender for the GOP’s nomination is Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who has already proven his ability to win statewide. Our forecast finds that Kelly’s odds of winning would be just 50.4% against Brnovich.

Kelly might avoid him and face a weaker candidate. Brnovich currently enjoys the support of just 23% of primary voters. No other challenger has managed to rise as a clear threat yet. Venture capitalist Blake Masters, General Mike McGuire, and businessman Jim Lamon are also stuck at around 6-10% in our primary polling average. Time will tell if voters coalesce around an alternative. If they do, that’s good news for Kelly, who has a 7% lead against everyone outside of Brnovich.

4.  Georgia: Senator Raphael Warnock (D)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 37%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 2nd
Change: -2
State Forecast - Live

If the election were today, Senator Warnock could be destined for defeat against Football Star Herschel Walker, the almost certain nominee for the GOP. Walker has taken a thin 0.7% lead in our polling average as Democrats’ numbers have slid nationally against the GOP.

Perversely, the fact that the polling is so close is good news for Warnock, because he has plenty of material to use against Walker and ample time to narrow the gap. Walker has a graveyard packed with skeletons that could derail his candidacy, and Republicans are taking a huge risk nominating him in one of the most important Senate races of the cycle.

Among a long list of vulnerabilities, Walker has openly admitted he almost killed someone for delivering a car a day late. He moved from Texas a month before running for Senate in Georgia. His issues with his ex-wife are the most dangerous to his candidacy. She told ABC News that at one point, he pointed a pistol at her head and said, “I’m going to blow your f’ing brains out.”

Those threats, according to sworn testimony by her family under oath, kept happening even after they divorced. A judge found the threat serious enough to issue a restraining order against him to protect her.

Raphael Warnock is one of the Democratic party's most talented candidates, and he was able to effectively attack his last opponent, Kelly Loeffler, with far less. He's raised an enormous amount of money, and will likely let loose with a barrage of attack ads soon after Walker secures the nomination.

Most voters have never been exposed to the less savory part of Walker's history, so there is a real possibility his support will take a real hit once the ads start hitting, and Walker starts getting more scrutiny in the media.

Perhaps Walker can survive these attacks. He is charismatic and has star power as the greatest college football player in state history, who brought the championship to the University of Georgia. It’s also possible that Walker might be lifted by a red wave.

5. Ohio: Open Seat. Held by Republicans

Chance of Flipping Parties: 33%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 7th
Change: -2
State Forecast - Live

To win a state like Ohio, the Democratic nominee must overperform the rest of the party, build strong turnout, and win over swing voters. Congressman Tim Ryan is probably the best-positioned candidate Democrats could recruit because he’s been able to do that in the House for a long time. In 2016, Ryan won his re-election, 67.7% to 32.3%, while Hillary Clinton won his congressional district in the same year by just 6%.

However, our Senate Forecast is likely giving Democrats too high a chance for an upset. Donald Trump won the Buckeye State twice by about 8%. We use funding from individual donors, which excludes self-funding and PAC money. Historically, this is far more predictive of success in the general election.

Ryan raised has raised $6.9 million, nearly twenty times more than one of his top competitors, Josh Mandel, who raised an atrociously low $0.4 million. Normally, that type of ratio would indicate an AWOL opponent running a campaign without a pulse - which isn't an accurate representation.

Nonetheless, it would be a mistake to county Ryan out entirely. He's one of the best recruits of the cycle for either party, and his brand of politics is a great fit for Ohio. Ryan has spent his career laser-focused on blue-collar issues, much like Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) and former Ohio Senator Howard Metzenbaum (D).

One factor that could matter? Voters in Ohio are much more likely to split their ballots. In 2020, Ohio was one of the top ten states in the average difference between the vote in the presidential election and the vote for congressional candidates.

6.  New Hampshire: Senator Maggie Hassan (D)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 30%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 5th
Change: -1
State Forecast - Live

New Hampshire would have topped the list if fate had been kinder to the Republican party. The GOP tried everything to encourage NH Governor Chris Sununu (R) to run for the Senate. He was leading Hassan in polls, by 5-6%, and had just won his 2020 re-election by over 30%. However, Sununu deflated the GOP dreams in his early November press conference: "I'd rather push myself 120 miles an hour delivering wins for New Hampshire,” Sununu said, “than to slow down, end up on Capitol Hill debating partisan politics without results.”

Sununu’s decision surely caused for jubilation in the Hassan campaign, whose chances of winning in our forecast would have plummeted to 30%, had Sununu become the GOP nominee. Without Sununu, Hassan has a 70% chance of winning her second term in the Senate. 

There is no current clear frontrunner in the Republican primary, in part due to a surprising lack of primary polling. One candidate, General Don Bolduc is probably the Republicans’ riskiest pick, as he has embraced a series of radical conspiracies, including accusing Governor Sununu of being a “communist sympathizer.” The GOP’s most establishment-friendly choice is NH State Senate President Chuck Morse. As of this publication date, Hassan leads all potential opponents in polling, but stay tuned, as this race could heat up in the coming summer months.

7.  North Carolina: Open Seat. Held by Republicans

Chance of Flipping Parties: 23%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 4th
Change: -3
State Forecast - Live

Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) narrowly lost her 2020 re-election, in one of the closest elections in North Carolina’s history. She fell short by a mere 401 votes, albeit an impressive finish, given that President Joe Biden and Senate Nominee Cal Cunningham both lost by more than 70,000 votes. That election result suggests Beasley is a strong candidate.

The 2022 cycle will likely be tougher for Democrats than 2020, so to win the senate race, Beasley will need to improve on her past performance and outperform her party in what is expected to be a challenging midterm election. Beasley has been competitive in limited polling conducted in this race; she’s outpaced all potential GOP opponents in fundraising. Importantly, Beasley has the chance to make history for North Carolina, as the third black woman to win a senate seat.

Her Republican opponent in the general election will be one of three candidates. The first is former Governor Pat McCrory, whom our forecast projects as the best bet to win for the GOP in the general election. He holds a slight lead in the GOP primary over Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, Congressman Ted Budd. In Ted Budd’s first run for public office, in 2016, he beat 16 other candidates to secure his surprising victory. He’s never experienced running in a competitive general election; success in winning primary votes doesn’t necessarily mean he'll have the skillset to win general election voters.

In third place is a former evangelical preacher and current Congressman Mark Walker; unsurprisingly, he enjoys strong support from evangelical voters. At Donald Trump’s prodding, Walker nearly dropped his senate campaign to run for re-election to Congress. However, right after a tentative agreement was made, the North Carolina’s State Supreme Court struck down their congressional map for partisan gerrymandering, and Walker changed his mind and decided to stay in the race.

8.  Wisconsin: Senator Ron Johnson (R)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 21%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 5th
No Change
State Forecast - Live

Ron Johnson has been the white whale chased by Democrats since he first ran in 2010; he’s already slipped away twice. They are hoping that his third run will be the charm. Our data suggest that Johnson is very strongly positioned, though we should note that more than a few political pundits argue that this race will be more competitive than our forecast suggests.

He was elected and re-elected on his promise to be a bipartisan, results-oriented, above-the-political-fray Senator, but in the last six years, he’s embraced a role as one of the GOP’s foremost partisan warriors. His new role has damaged support with Wisconsin voters; his voter approval rating is now easily one of the lowest among all Senators running for re-election in 2022.

If Johnson can re-establish his old brand with voters, he’ll be in a strong position to win. He’s proven in the past to be a skilled campaigner and is likely to make major gains with rural voters, with whom he underperformed, relative to Trump in 2016 and 2010. That might make up for some of the ground he’s likely lost in the suburban vote. Democrats' best chance to prevent his turnaround might be to attack him on economic terms, by shifting the political debate away from the culture wars. Some of Johnson’s comments could come across as out of touch or tone-deaf, especially when discussing issues facing working-class voters.

One example was his reaction to Wisconsin-based manufacturer Oshkosh Corporation’s decision to manufacture U.S. Postal Service delivery vehicles in South Carolina: “It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin. Obviously, I'm supportive of it," he said. "But in the end, I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those most efficiently and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that."

Nonetheless, dismiss Ron Johnson at your peril. For one, polls in two of the last three elections in Wisconsin underestimated the Republican party by frankly stunning margins. We don’t know if the same thing will happen in 2022 - after all, they were spot on in 2018, and underestimated Democrats in 2012 and 2010. For now, caution seems prudent. Second, Ron Johnson has been written off for dead before, and not just by Democrats. In 2016, the national Republicans party cut off funding for Wisconsin to refocus it on other states, and Ron Johnson managed to win a shocking upset victory without their help.

9.  Colorado: Senator Michael Bennet (D)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 14%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 10th
Change: +1
State Forecast - Coming Soon

Republicans pose a very serious threat in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. However, even if the GOP surfs a red tidal wave in 2022, they’re going to find few other races to gain ground beyond those four. Their next best chance would be Colorado. The state is still somewhat competitive. Because Colorado leans 6.6% Democratic, winning there will be a real challenge for the GOP.

Michael Bennet has proven to be a strong candidate in the past. In 2016, he won by almost 6%, while Republicans won Congressional elections by 1% (despite their loss in the Presidential Election popular vote). Colorado has since shifted almost five points, in favor of the Democratic Party. Therefore, in a neutral cycle against a generic Republican, Bennet’s last election suggests he could win his reelection by about 12%.

Right now, none of Colorado’s primary GOP candidates have histories of winning tough elections, nor have any raised much money, both of which strengthen Bennet’s position. If the GOP recruits former Senator Cory Gardner (R) as their 11th-hour candidate, their odds to upset the race would surge to over 30%. For now, our forecast projects Bennet to win, by more than 10%.

10.  Florida: Senator Marco Rubio (R)

Chance of Flipping Parties: 9%
Rank in our Last Top Ten: 9th
Change: -1
State Forecast - Live

If it were still 2012, the Florida Senate race would look like a real opportunity for Democrats. They have an excellent candidate in Congresswoman Val Demings, a former police chief, and phenomenal fundraiser, who has outraised Senator Marco Rubio in the last two quarters. She faces long odds against Rubio, who won re-election in 2016 by 8% even as Donald Trump beat Clinton by just 1.5%. The Sunshine state has shifted an additional 4% towards Republicans.

The one-piece of good news for Democrats is that Florida voters who know Demings, like her, while her overall name recognition remains low. That suggests her polling may rise as voters learn more about her. She has the campaign funds to define her image with Floridians on her own terms. Republican attacks painting her as “socialist” will be hard to make stick, given her record as police chief; besides Demings has enough reserves to respond effectively. To win, she’ll need a big bounce back in Miami, where Democrats had a disastrous finish in 2020. She’ll also likely need Democrats to make major gains nationally and win the popular vote.

Next 2:

11. Washington: Senator Patty Murray (D)

12.  Missouri: Open Seat. Held by Republicans

Photo Credits:

1. Gage Skidmore from Peoria: Chuck Grassley, Marco Rubio, Mark Kelly, Rob Portman, Ron Johnson, Roy Blunt
2. United States Senate and Congress: Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Michael Bennet
3. Senate Democrats: Ron Wyden

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