Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Election

Forecast and Graphics Designed by: Logan Phillips

This is the final Presidential Forecast before the election. Track the live forecast here.

The RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast predicts the winner for every state in the nation, after taking into account the latest polling, each state’s recent electoral history, and national economic trends over the last two years. The model plugs in the projections for every state into an election simulator, which simulates the electoral college 50,000 times in order to predict the odds of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the election. The forecast is data-driven, and has been rigorously tested on every Presidential election since 1972 to ensure it’s as accurate as possible. You can learn much more about how the forecast works here.

Track Record: Since RacetotheWH launched in 2020, it has had one of the strongest track records of any forecaster. In 2022, we came one race short of calling the exact number of House seats the GOP would win in the midterms. An independent review found our probabilities for House and Senate races were the most accurate of any forecaster.

Newest Features Added: First, you can now Simulate Election Night once a day. Just like the real election, polls will close in each state by time zone, and the results are called last for the states with the closest results. It will update every morning with a new simulation. Second, we built a new feature that delves far deeper into our predictions for each swing state. It shows how we made our prediction, explores how each state has voted in recent elections, and shows how the prediction has changed over time.

Other Features: After exploring the Presidential Forecast below, be sure to also check out our predictions for the House and Senate, and track the latest Presidential Polls.

Election Day Update: Before polls close, we will be launching a Live Presidential Forecast that will run continuously through election night and the days following, until the final results are available in each state. It adjusts the original RacetotheWH forecast, updating after each race call. Key factors considered include exit polls for pivotal swing states, the NYT needle’s live forecast, and the national environment. Our estimate of the national environment is based on evaluating how each state votes relative to its partisan lean, with distinct projected national popular votes for both the Presidential and Congressional races.