In California, Republican David Valadao Will Need Latino Support to Win Re-Election
Congressman David Valadao - Photo Credit: US Congress
By: Joseph Brusgard, Staff Writer
Date: March 22nd
The race for the House of Representatives is heating up as we enter the primary season, and we’re predicting the results for every state in our new House Race Ratings. Here are three races that could end up playing a decisive factor in deciding the majority.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
It’s no secret that Republicans are striving to build on their surprisingly strong showing with Latino voters from 2020, and California’s 22nd district is one of the few competitive majority Latino districts in the nation. Republican David Valadao will be in for a tough fight to retain his seat.
That's familiar territory for the Congressman. He has won on blue turf in three straight elections from 2012 to 2016, before being knocked out of office by TJ Cox in 2018. Valadao won the rematch in 2020 and got more support in his district than Donald Trump.
His new district is even bluer, and it would have voted for Joe Biden by 13 points. For most, that would push the race out of reach for most, but Valadao still has a shot at victory. He regularly breaks with his party and was just one of ten Representatives to support Donald Trump’s impeachment after his efforts to overturn the last election and role in the January 6 riots that broke through the capitol.
Photo Credit: David Valadao’s Congressional Office
Unlike the other Republican House members that did the same, he isn't being challenged by a Trump-backed primary challenger. There was some publish backlash, but the party is being strategic and realizes that without Valadao, they won’t have a shot here.
His opponent will almost certainly be Democratic State Assemblyman Rudy Salas, the only Democrat running, who has already won the backing of former Congressman Cox. Salas’s base is in Bakersfield, the 9th biggest city in California, and he’ll need a strong turnout there to win. He’ll need to secure strong support with Latinos, which will be a challenge against Valadao.
This is one of the ten most competitive congressional elections in the nation in our House forecast. We currently have him narrowly favored, with a 53% chance of winning re-election.
#2: North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District:
If Republicans end up having a strong cycle in 2022, they can play offense in the newly redrawn first congressional district of North Carolina. It’s a highly competitive seat that leans just 6% towards the Democratic party, left open by Congressman G.K. Butterfield.
The district contains the fast-growing blue city of Greenville in the heart of the black belt, along with several small cities like Rocky Mount and Wilson. While those cities have shifted to the left, the rural parts of the district are shifting to the right. They have roughly counterbalanced each other, creating a highly competitive political battleground in NC-1.
According to our House Forecast - Photo Credit: Graphic by Logan Phillips
However, Republicans could blow their opportunity if they nominate the current frontrunner, Sandy Smith. Smith is easily one of the most extreme candidates in the country on either side of the aisle. She’s raised red flags by openly and enthusiastically opposing a democratic transition of power in 2020 and claiming her own loss was a result of voter fraud by Dominion voting machines, which weren’t even used in her district.
Smith attended the violent January 6th riot. Unlike others that did the same, like Doug Mastriano, she is still continuing to brag about her role there, even after the rioters breached the capitol doors and injured over 140 police officers.
This might not hurt her in the primary - where she has raised a significant amounts of money, but it will almost certainly hurt her in the general election. Even before she took such an extreme turn, she lost by 10% in 2020 when she won the nomination against Butterfield. This district is still Democratic-leaning, and going all-in on claims of electoral fraud will not do Republicans any favors.
There are other alternatives that would give the GOP a far better shot, including the Mayor of Rocky Mount, Sandy Roberson. He has over $1,000,000 to spend on his campaign, although much of that comes from a self-loan.
Erica Smith - Photo Credit: NC General Assembly
On the Democratic side, former State Senator Erica Smith dropped out of the Senate Race several months ago and set her sights on the Democratic nomination. She’s likely the frontrunner, after raising close to $500k for her Senate race. Fellow State Senator Don Davis, the former Mayor of Snow Hill, is also in the running, along with Julian Bishop Jr. and Jason Spriggs.
Erica Smith is running a progressive campaign, and this could turn into an ideological proxy war between progressives and moderates. Smith has criticized Davis for his votes on an abortion bill, in which Davis voted to block taxpayer money from going to clinics that perform abortions.
Davis has disputed these charges, touting his support for reproductive freedom. This issue could become even more salient if the Supreme Court makes a ruling partially or fully overturning Roe v. Wade in Dobbs V. Jackson. In the general election, this could easily cause turnout to surge in both the rural red parts of the district and the bluer small cities.
Overall, Democrats are still favored, with a 70% chance of winning, but that chance will drop if someone else other than Sandy Smith is the nominee.
#3: Oregon’s 5th Congressional District:
In the process of redistricting, Oregon Democrats made a gamble that could pay off for them by the decade’s end. In 2022, it could cost them dearly. The 5th district was redrawn to be one of the most competitive in the entire state. It includes the city of Bend, which is trending leftward at a fast rate, along with parts of Portland’s suburbs. Everything in between those two areas is firm Republican territory.
Photo Credit: Oregon Department of Transportation,
Democratic Congressman Kurt Schrader has been in office since 2009 and survived the 2010 and 2014 red waves by comfortable margins. He’s a conservative Democrat, who has voted against the American Recovery Plan and was critical of the second Trump impeachment.
Schrader is facing a primary challenger from Jamie McLeod Skinner, who ran for Secretary of State in 2020 and was endorsed by some prominent backers such as Elizabeth Warren. Skinner has also won the backing of some local county Democratic parties, which highlights the struggle he faces.
Complicating matters further, Schrader is a stranger to a lot of the new terrain in his district, which means he won’t have quite as much name recognition as incumbents usually do. Schrader is still the favorite in the primary, but he’s not guaranteed a united base in the general election.
On the Republican side, two candidates have filed. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of Happy Valley, a Portland suburb, and Jimmy Crumpacker, an investor. Of these two candidates, DeRemer is probably the favorite to win the nomination.
We have Schrader at a 72% chance of winning in the end, but there is a very real chance that if Schrader can’t excite certain parts of the base, Republicans can steal this seat away from Democrats in an upset.
The Big Picture
For the full picture of the 2022 House elections, explore our interactive House Forecast, which predicts the chances both parties have of winning the majority and tracks how many seats each party is expected to gain in every state. We are also running interactive forecasts for the 2022 Senate Election and the Governor races.
