Democrats' Hopes of Keeping the Senate in 2022 Might Rest on Winning Nevada
Photo credit: Senate Democrats
By: Joseph Brusgard
Date: October 15th
The fate of the Senate majority might rest on the choice Nevadans make next November. This is nothing new for the Silver State, which has long been at the center of American politics. It has successfully chosen the winning candidate in 23 of the last 25 presidential elections solidifying its crucial status. Nevada has voted for Democrats in every statewide election but one since 2014, but it remains one of the most tightly contested swing states. In fact, in every presidential and midterm congressional election in the last decade, the combined statewide vote in Nevada has been slightly better for Republicans than the national popular vote. Democrats are counting on Senator Catherine Cortez Masto to win re-election. Our Senate forecast shows that when she wins, Democrats keep the majority over 80% of the time. When she loses, Republicans take the Senate 63% of the time.
The granddaughter of immigrants, Cortez Masto made history five years ago as the first Latina ever elected to the U.S. Senate. She outpaced Congressman Joe Heck by 2.4% on the strength of a near double-digit victory in Clark County, home of Las Vegas and over two-thirds of the state’s voters. While Heck won 16 of the 17 counties in the state, his loss in Clark proved fatal. In most of America, Republicans would be doomed in a state where such a high percentage of voters lived in urban counties, because Democrats tend to win them by over 20%. However, Clark County is relatively more competitive, preferring Democrats by about 10% in the average competitive election. From time to time, the right Republican candidate can flip Clark County, like Governor Brian Sandoval, who won it handily in 2014.
The Senate Forecast - Nevada
We project Senator Cortez Masto as the current favorite in our Senate Forecast. She benefits from being an incumbent, that won in a challenging 2016 political environment, and she has a very slight lead in the polling average. Our model currently gives her a 62% chance of winning re-election. For the full Senate Forecast, click below.
It won’t be easy for Republicans to repeat the trick against a candidate like Cortez Masto, who has shown an ability to win in tough years. In 2010, she was re-elected as Nevada’s Attorney General by a decisive 17%, despite running in one of the worst years for Democrats in generations. Cortez Masto supports cleaner energy, helping to ease Native American healthcare shortages, and bans on bump stocks in the aftermath of 2017’s Las Vegas shooting. She has been active in fighting to ensure nuclear waste isn’t being dumped into the Yuca mountains. Thanks to a strong focus on local issues and being largely inoffensive, Masto isn’t likely to falter because of any personal flaws.
2016 Advertisement by Senator Catherine Cortez Masto
Typically, she’d also benefit from the Nevada Democratic Party, which has long been one of the most effective in the country, thanks in part to former Senator Harry Reid’s efforts to build it into a political powerhouse. However, it's far from clear the same dynamic will hold true in 2022. Last March, the Nevada Democratic Party held a leadership contest, and Judith Whitmer, backed by Democratic Socialists of America, won a surprising victory. In protest, much of the old guard resigned and promised to work separately from the party. In Washoe County, which Cortez Masto lost by less than 1%, an alternative Democratic organization was set up to do the state party’s job. This has put Masto in a delicate position, and she’s put some distance between herself and the state party. The timing isn’t ideal for democrats – who have little room for error in 2022.
Democrats aren’t the only ones struggling with partisan fissures. Tensions are high between the old GOP guard and the new Trump activist wing over the future of the Nevada Republican Party, and fierce political battles have erupted in both state and local party organizations. The Republican state committee narrowly voted to censure the Republican Secretary of State, Barbara Cegavske, for refusing to investigate Trump’s conspiracy theories that the Nevada election was rigged. The conflict has reached satirical levels in Clark County. Symbolic of the division, there are now two different groups claiming that they are the true representatives of the Clark County Republican Party.
Adam Laxalt Campaign Launch Video
The Republican nominee will likely be Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt, whose family has become a political dynasty in Nevada. His grandfather, Paul, was elected Governor and Senator and developed a close friendship with former President Ronald Reagan. The Laxalts are a famously conservative bunch and Adam is no exception. Laxalt has the full backing of the Republican party's power base, winning Trump’s endorsement, along with the support of Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, and Rick Scott. While he is the clear favorite in the primary, he will have to first overcome challenges from Captain Sam Brown and Sharelle Mendenhall.
Laxalt chaired Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in Nevada last year, and supported his conspiracy theories about the election. Laxalt’s embrace of Trump’s attempts to overturn the election undoubtedly helped him secure the former’s president’s invaluable endorsement for the primary, but it carries a serious risk of backfiring in the general election. It’s no way to narrow his deficit in Clark County, which Biden won by 9 points. It’s feasible it could rally turnout in the rural counties.
The bigger concern Republicans might have about Laxalt is his disappointing performance in 2014. In the very same year, Nevada went ruby red, and Republican Governor Brian Sandoval won re-election with 70%, Laxalt only beat Secretary of State Ross Miller by less than 1% to become the Attorney General. He didn't just underperform Sandoval - combined, congressional Republicans in 2014 beat Democrats in a pretty stunning beatdown, winning by 17.4%. Despite losing re-election in 2018, Laxalt arguably ran a much more impressive campaign considering how great a year it was for Democrats. He lost by just 4%, a better margin than Nevada Congressional Republicans.
Expect the economy to loom large here in 2022. Few states in the nation faced more economic devastation than Nevada from the Coronavirus-fueled recession. Nevada's economy is powered by the tourism and the entertainment industry in Las Vegas and Reno, and it was all but shut down in the early stages of the pandemic. That led to a surge in unemployment, and the state still hasn't recovered from its losses. Fortunately, the tide has begun to turn – Nevada led the nation in GDP growth last quarter with 11%.
Cortez Masto is likely going to position herself as a champion of working-class Nevadans and point to the legislation she supported that has helped struggling families keep afloat in their hardest times, including cash relief, the child tax credit, and extensions of unemployment benefits. Laxalt will counter and try to put her, and the Democratic party, at the center of the state's economic issues.
Ultimately, re-election might come down to the Biden administration’s ability to keep the coronavirus under control. A badly timed wave from a new variant could once again hammer Nevada’s economy, and Democrats would likely get the blame. A resurgent economy will position Cortez Masto to proudly point to the Democrat’s efforts to invest in the economy and keep Americans safe and healthy.
Money won’t be in short supply for either candidate. Cortez Masto was one of nations top fundraisers in the Senate in the third quarter, raising over 3.15 million dollars. Laxalt raised an impressive $1.4 million, a very strong number for a challenger this early in the election.
While the conditions are there for Laxalt to win, he remains the underdog. Masto is an incumbent with a strong resume but has a fractured party apparatus behind her and a potentially tough national environment. Laxalt has the benefit of history as a challenger taking on the party in the White House in a midterm, but his party is still embroiled over fights about the 2020 election and the future of the Republican party. Either way, expect this crucial race to be decided by a small margin.
