Democrats' Chances of Winning the Senate just Rose to 51.5%, the Highest since Virginia. Here's Why:
Photo credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America,
By: Logan Phillips, Editor in Chief
Date: January 9th
In the Senate Forecast, Democrats’ chances of holding on to the majority just rose to their highest level, 51.5%, since the New Jersey and Virginia elections last November. It looks like Republicans might get another bad break in the primaries, this time at the hands of Donald Trump. He just announced he would be hosting a fundraiser for Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters, a venture capitalist and the president of the Thiel Foundation. Odds are high that an endorsement is incoming.
Masters is a gifted communicator, but he has several serious vulnerabilities for the general election. Our Senate forecast projects he would only have a 31% chance at beating Senator Mark Kelly, because Masters has never run for office before, and he’s already polling 10% behind Senator Mark Kelly.
Republicans would be far more likely to capture Kelly's seat if they went with current primary polling leader, Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who our forecast thinks would have a 52% chance of victory. Brnovich has already proven that he can win tough elections, and he's polling only a few points behind Kelly.
This is becoming a real problem for Republicans. Trump is supporting weak candidates like Herschel Walker, and perhaps deterring stronger ones from even running (GA, NH & PA come to mind). It’s a difference in strategic goals among party leaders. Mitch McConnell wants to win back the Senate majority. Trump would prefer Republicans in charge, but his primary objective is to elevate loyalists and control the party.
The problem for the GOP is that Trump loyalists, especially those that are first-time politicians, are not the strongest candidates. If the GOP narrowly loses the Senate, President Trump’s involvement in primaries will likely be a big part of the reason why.
For the full Senate Forecast — which was more accurate at predicting the final margin in the Senate than Nate Silver’s 538 last year — click here. You can also check out how the different potential GOP nominees poll and perform in the forecast against Mark Kelly in our AZ interactive forecast.
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