Is Joe Biden Breaking out of His Approval Rating Slump?

President

Mar 7

*Photo credit: Office of U.S. House Speaker*

By: Logan Phillips, Editor in Chief

Date: March 7th

President Joe Biden has faced a difficult six-month period of declining poll numbers, initially driven by the unexpectedly rapid collapse of the Afghani Government in August, and after his ordered pullout of American troops after 20 years of war. The fall was swift at first, and his support dropped from just under 52% to 45% by late October. Even after Biden's support stabilized, it still slowly trickled away over the next four months, reaching a low of 42.3% entering the State of the Union.

At long last, Joe Biden is primed for a surge as he faces down the greatest challenge yet of his Presidency. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has put the world on edge and raised fears not just about the unnecessary suffering of the Ukrainian people, but also the possibility that we could be entering a new unstable period of violence and economic uncertainty. It threatens to end an era of historically low levels of war between states that has lasted for over seventy years since the end of World War 2.

If Russia can achieve its strategic objectives in the war, especially without paying a serious price, then it would send a clear signal to other nations that they can invade their militarily weaker neighbors with impunity. It's no exaggeration to say that millions of people could be killed or displaced from wars that we can’t even conceive of today.

Biden's response to Ukraine has arguably been his finest moment. He's rallied the world to prosecute maximal sanctions against Russia, and the economic impact has already been devastating. In just a week, the Russian stock market crashed by over 25%, and their currency's value plummeted by 30%. Moreover, the United States, its NATO allies, and nations far outside of Europe and North America are offering significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which has been fighting a surprisingly strong war against Russia.

Clearly, the stakes are much larger than politics. Nonetheless, this presents a real opportunity for Biden to regain the support of the American people. In a rare stroke of political luck for Biden, the State of the Union speech happened a week after the invasion. It gave the President the perfect opportunity to reframe the narrative on Ukraine and show Americans what he has already achieved, and how he will lead going forward.

This past weekend, Marist College, one of just 12 pollsters that RacetotheWH gives an A+ rating, released the first poll since his speech. They showed Biden's support at 47%, an 8% gain over the poll they released just a week earlier.

One of the most encouraging parts of the poll for Biden was his surging support with Millennials and Gen Z. His support in the earlier Marist poll had fallen to an abysmal 39%. However, it rose 17% to a much stronger 56%. Across the board, there were clear signals that Biden's base was returning. His approval with Democrats hit the highest level since July, at 90%.

Biden also got a 10% boost with independents, and reach 42% approval with rural voters, which is an all-time personal high. That last number seems a bit too high to be accurate, but it’s still an encouraging sign for the President, who has long prioritized trying to win back some of the rural support that has fallen away from Democrats in the last six years.

For an up to date Approval Rating, and a full list of polls, follow our Biden Approval Rating Tracker, updated daily.

Keep in mind – this is just the very first poll released. The best way to understand the political battleground is to look at the full picture of all polls released. That’s why we keep a polling average of Joe Biden’s approval rating at RacetotheWH. As excellent of a pollster as Marist is, the other polls coming in the next few days could tell a different story.

While I’m not confident that Biden has gained as much as 8%, I think it is likely Biden has gotten a real bounce. Voters have been very focused on Covid-19 and inflation, and that’s been bad for Biden. However, Ukraine has now become one of the defining issues of this political moment. According to a tool that tracks how often the media mentions different words in its coverage, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox have mentioned the Ukraine crisis ten times more than both Covid and Inflation combined.

Biden might gain support on other factors beyond Ukraine. The United States Covid-19 rate has plummeted to about 5% of its omicron-fueled high, the lowest rate since July. Restrictions have been relaxed in most states. Jobs have continued to grow at a quick clip.

Challenges remain. Inflation continues to be high, and oil prices are already rising because of the conflict and sanctions on Russia. That will likely continue.

How often CNN, Fox and MSNBC mentioned Covid, Inflation, and Ukraine. Data from GDELT

Right now, polls indicate that Americans are more than willing to pay higher prices to support Ukraine’s fight against Russia. However, there's no guarantee they will feel the same way in the months to come, and Biden might be on the receiving end of frustrating families dealing with another high expense they can barely afford.

House and Senate

In the last week, Democrats gained some ground in our House Forecast, after performing better than expected in Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Track the political battleground in each state here, and the overall forecast here. Nationally, Republicans are the favorites, but Democrats retain a fighting shot at victory.

In the Senate, Democrats are very modest favorites to hold onto the chamber. Republicans need to flip only one seat to win. Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto regained her lead in the polls and is once again (slightly) favored to win re-election in Nevada.

In the national generic ballot, Republicans have taken a lead of about 1.9%. That doesn't assure victory, as we learned in 2018 when Democrats won by their largest margin in the national popular vote since Watergate, but still lost a Senate seat. This time around, the map favors Democrats, so Republicans likely need a strong midterm to take the majority.