The Supreme Court Has Overturned Roe v. Wade. Republicans Could Pay a Steep Political Price
Photo Credit: Beyond My Ken
By: Logan Phillips
Date: Updated June 24th, Original Version Published May 3rd
In early 2016, Mitch McConnel broke historic precedent and prevented President Obama from appointing a Justice nine months out from the election. Now, that will go down as a defining moment in American history, as the Supreme Court just repealed Roe V. Wade.
This will impact states across the nation, far beyond the boundaries of the states where Republicans control all levers of government today, like Oklahoma and Texas. Over the past few decades, Republicans have successfully passed bans on abortion that would automatically go into effect if Roe v. Wade was overturned. Total or near-total bans will go into effect even in many of the most tightly contested swing states in the nation, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Each of those states have governor elections this November.
The implications of ending Roe v. Wade go beyond politics and elections. Nonetheless, the political consequences of this change will be monumental in their own right and could reshape the political battleground for the 2022 election cycle.
Overturning Roe v. Wade has been the white whale for the Republican party for over a generation, and it has powered them to victory time and time again. Now that they are on the precipice of reaching their goal, there could be a steep political price to pay.
Nationally, I anticipate that this will now be a very high turnout election. This was always going to be true among Republican-leaning voters, who are fired up with a Democrat in the White House. However, now this likely applies to Democratic voters as well, especially in the swing states that suddenly have abortion bans that most people had no idea were going to surface if Roe was overturned. If Republicans have a strong year, they could still end up losing Governor or even Senate races in key swing states like Arizona, Michigan, or Wisconsin if enough pro-choice voters are motivated to turn out.
Democrats will be better protected from suffering from leakage with several key groups, including suburban voters and college-educated voters. Most consequentially, it could reverse their losses with young voters, especially young female voters that are pro-choice. President Biden’s support with young voters has been underwhelming, and one of the most alarming red flags for the midterms. Even a modest drop-off in youth turnout would prove very costly for Democrats.
We’ve already seen a big gap emerge between Biden and the rest of the Democratic party in polling since the Court’s opinion leaked in May. While voters have soured considerably on Biden, whose approval rating is now hovering around 40%, the generic ballot has gotten more competitive. On the state level, Democrats are polling about 8% higher than Biden’s approval rating in 16 Governor and Senate polls in competitive races - a pattern that has been consistent in polling released by both independent pollsters, Democratic pollsters, and Republican pollsters.
As a direct result, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate in our Election Forecast have risen over 50%, especially as they took the lead in polling in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
