Can Colorado Governor Jared Polis Win Re-Election in Colorado?

President

Mar 14

*Photo credit: Colorado State Government (Colorado.Gov)*

By: Logan Phillips, Editor in Chief

Date: March 14th

Democrats have held the Governor Mansion in Denver since 2006. Paradoxically, that may make Republicans feel optimistic this year because voters in the US tend to prefer change. It’s going to be challenging even in a strong environment for Republicans because the Centennial State is no longer nearly as competitive after a sharp lurch to the left in the Obama and Trump years. Time will tell if Republicans' slide with white college-educated voters is enduring, or whether it will bounce back from the lows of the Trump era. If it’s the latter, they have a better chance of mounting a successful upset.

Still, it’s not hopeless for Republicans. Colorado is not California. It leans 6% towards Democrats -a clear but not insurmountable advantage under the right circumstances. Early polls show that Democratic Jared Polis is quite popular. He’s become known nationally for chartering a middle course on Covid, initially taking aggressive steps to limit the pandemic, but was months ahead of most other Democrats on reducing restrictions and encouraging businesses to reopen. Polis said about the restrictions, “We have to understand that while of course there's an economic cost of caution, it's also about the social-emotional cost of people.”

Today, RacetotheWH is launching our Colorado Governor Forecast, which will predict the results of the election, and track all the latest polling. The Republican party’s primary is still contested, so our forecast runs through three different matchups featuring the top three Republican candidates for the nomination.

The early frontrunner to represent the Republican party is Heidi Ganahl, who won a statewide election to the Colorado Board of Regents. She’s promised to bolster the police department, lower taxes, and address the mental health crisis.
She’s challenged by Greg Lopez, the former Mayor of Parker, and a child of Mexican immigrants, who has emphasized support for small businesses. Finally, Danielle Neuschwanger, a de-escalation instructor for first responders, is also in the running. Neuschwanger emphasizes preserving agriculture but got into trouble after suggesting that Polis, the first gay governor in American history, was faking his sexuality for extra votes.

Our state forecasts go further than anyone when it comes to using data to show all aspects of the political battleground, including the latest polling, current fundraising levels, a map showing the partisan lean of each county, approval ratings for every candidate, and a trendline of the state’s shifting politics since 1965. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation. In Colorado, our projection was almost perfect. We predicted that Governor John Hickenlooper would beat Senator Corey Gardner by 9.3%, and his actual margin of victory was 9.32%.

At launch, Jared Polis is in an excellent position. In fact, right now our forecast projects that Polis will win re-election by slightly more than he won in 2018. That would be an impressive feat, especially if Republicans are able to make good on their dreams of building a red wave. Polis is well-positioned to survive even a raucous red wave because he has been able to maintain support with both Democrats and independents.

However, we still have a long time until election day, and the political headwinds in the Centennial state still could end up blowing the Polis re-election campaign off course. That’s why we still give the GOP a viable chance of pulling off an upset. Right now, none of the GOP candidates are well known, and they will do their best to offer a compelling alternative to Polis that can attract swing voters to their side.

Right below is this first piece of our interactive Colorado Senate Forecast. You can find the full page here, updated daily from now until election day.