Five House Races to Watch From Montana to Texas As The 2022 Election Heats Up

President

Feb 16

Former Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke is likely to be the Republican Nominee. Photo Credit: U.S. Department of the Interior

By: Joseph Brusgard, Staff

Date: February 16th

Republicans have entered 2022 as the favorites to win a majority in the House, but our newly launched House Election Forecast shows Democrats have a fighting shot at victory. Every year, 435 congressional elections are held across the country, which means that some of the most interesting storylines can get lost in the mix. Here are five races to keep a close eye on as the election cycle heats up.

1. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District

Ohio Democrat Marcy Kaptur is just one victory short of becoming the longest-serving Congresswoman in American history. That victory is far from assured, however, and our forecast currently considers her to be the underdog. Two trends have put Kaptur's candidacy in jeopardy.

Marcy Kapture meets with NATO Forces in Europe - Photo Credit: Congress

First, she represents Northern Ohio, and that part of the Buckeye State has been trending away from the Democratic Party. Second, and much more consequentially, Ohio Republicans redrew the congressional lines to maximize their political advantage, and her new district is much more Republican. Her old district included parts of Cleveland and was a D +8% district. Through some creative drawing of the lines, Republicans cut the city out of her district and redrew it into a Republican-leaning one that is R +8%. That is the most drastic shift right nationwide for any Democratic incumbent running for re-election. It is no surprise that Republican candidates are lining up to run against her, including state senator Theresa Gavarone.

Today, our forecast gives her just a 20% chance of winning another term. However, Kaptur might get rescued by the Ohio State Supreme Court, which struck down the current map for violating the state's constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering. If the new map gives her more favorable terrain, she’ll have a better shot at winning. Otherwise, Kaptur will face the toughest political fight of her life.

Tom Malinowski - Photo Credit: State Department

2. New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District

Like Republicans in Ohio, Democrats in New Jersey redrew the lines to get a partisan advantage, despite having a redistricting commission in charge of the process. They shored up the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, many of whom were swept into office in the 2018 blue wave.

Left behind was Democratic Representative Tom Malinowski, the former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor in the Obama administration. His new district leans 4% towards the Republican party, and he’s going up against a tough challenger named Tom Kean Jr. Kean is the latest in one of the most powerful political dynasties in New Jersey history that goes back to the 1700s, when John Kean represented New Jersey in the Continental Congress. Kean’s great grandfather was a Senator, his grandfather was a Congressman, and his father was the Governor.

The latest Kean rose to the top ranks of the state’s Republican party as the Minority Leader of the State Senate. Now, he’s hoping to topple Malinowski in 2022, after coming just 1.2% short of victory in 2020.

Democrats have reason to be worried, as was underscored by a poll released by Malinowski’s campaign this week that showed him tied. Internal polls released to the public typically provide a rosier image than the reality, so chances are he’s slightly behind at this stage. He also might be vulnerable from a scandal that happened last year, when he missed the deadline to report his stock trade disclosures, a requirement for all members of Congress.

However, Malinowski won’t be going down without a fight. He’s done an excellent job of fundraising, which matters for two reasons. First, it suggests he’s doing a good job of mobilizing grassroots support. Second, it’s going to give him the resources to get his message out. We rank this as one of the most competitive districts in the nation and give Kean a 56.5% chance of flipping the seat.

3. Texas’s 28th Congressional District

Photo Credit: U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Chad J. McNeeley

This Rio Grande Valley-based district is home to one of the most contentious primaries in the nation. Henry Cuellar, the longtime Blue Dog incumbent, is locked in a primary challenge with progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros, who has the support of the anti-establishment progressive wing of the Democratic party, including Bernie Sanders & AOC. It's a rematch of the 2020 primary, and Cisneros came within just 3% of toppling Cuellar.

Supporters of Cisneros could be playing with fire. Traditionally, the more anti-establishment progressives wing has been careful in picking their spots to avoid hurting Democrats' chances of holding the House and Senate, focusing on safe seats. This is a big exception, as Republicans have a viable shot at flipping this district. Our House Forecast gives Cuellar an 82% chance of winning re-election if he secures the nomination, in part due to his strength as an incumbent and his success at fundraising. That drops to just 68% if Cisneros wins the primary.

However, Cuellar might be a bit more vulnerable this time around in both the general election and primary. A few weeks ago, the FBI conducted a raid on his House, apparently as part of a federal investigation into the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, and a group of U.S. businessmen that have ties to that nation. Right now, it’s unclear if Cuellar did anything wrong, but it does raise some real questions, and it might be enough to help Cisneros win the nomination.

4. Illinois’s 6th Congressional District

This suburban Chicago district features a showdown between two incumbents who have been forced into the same district after Illinois lost a congressional seat following the 2020 census. Congresswoman Marie Newman was first elected in 2020, ousting long-time incumbent Dan Lipinski, in a primary. She faced the possibility of facing Congressman Chuy García in a majority Hispanic district, which would have been a very challenging proposition. Instead, she’s taking on Representative Sean Casten in the 6th district, who won the seat from Republicans in 2018.

Who’s favored in this race? More of the district is Newman’s old turf than Casten. However, Newman is in hot water after a Congressional ethics watchdog concluded that she promised federal employment to Professor Lymen Chehade, based on the promise that he wouldn't run against her in the primary. Emails indicate the negotiation includes policy positions on military support for Israel, although it's not clear if that was included in the final agreement. She's now being investigated by the Congressional Ethics office.

Newman has been endorsed by many progressive heavyweights, including Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal. Many of those endorsements came before the recent allegations emerged. Casten is probably a slight favorite thanks to the scandal and his advantage in fundraising. In the general election, we rate this seat as Likely Democrat. However, Newman's scandal could end up making this race more competitive, and it would become a target if Republicans win a landslide election nationally.

5. Montana’s 1st Congressional District

For the first time since the 1990s, Montana has a second congressional district. It’s usually a reliable red state and voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 16%. However, Democrats have consistently done better in non-presidential elections, and have elected Democrats such as Senator Jon Tester and former Governor Steve Bullock.

The new district is western-based and contains some favorable turf for Democrats, including Missoula, Gallatin, Flathead, and Glacier. Those are some of the fastest-growing areas of the state, and Glacier has a large Native American populace. That provides hope for Democrats in the long term, even though the current turf favors the Republican party.

In 2022, both parties have strong candidates running. The Republican nominee will likely be Ryan Zinke, who used to serve in Congress before leaving to become President Trump’s Secretary of the Interior. On the Democratic side, Monica Tranel has been endorsed by former Governor Brian Schweitzer. She’s a former Olympian who previously ran for the Montana Public Service Commission.

Our forecast finds Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat in 2022, both because of the district's lean and Zinke’s electoral record. However, the final margin could prove telling. If it's close, it would be a sign of Democrats' strength in Montana. That would bode well for Jon Tester, who is up for re-election in 2024. Moreover, if population growth continues, this could become a competitive district by the end of the decade.
Update 2/17: A new scandal just emerged from Secretary Zinke’s time leading the Department of the Interior. An investigation found that Zinke misled investigators about his role in a commercial real estate development project involving his family’s foundation. Before serving as Secretary of Interior, Zinke resigned from his old group, The Great Northern Veterans Peace Park Foundation. However, emails showed that he was still heavily involved in negotiations to get a project built on land owned by the foundation. Furthermore, he also gave incorrect info to investigators and also asked agency officials for help in the project. Zinke has hit back at these claims, attacking them as “a political hit job”. He’s still the favorite to win the primary and the general, but this could make the race closer.

The Big Picture

For the full picture of the 2022 House elections, explore our interactive House Forecast, which predicts the chances both parties have of winning the majority and tracks how many seats each party is expected to gain in every state. We are also running interactive forecasts for the 2022 Senate Election and the Governor races.