In Texas, Early Warning Signs that Greg Abbott Might Face the First Competitive General Election of his Career.
By: Logan Phillips
Date: September 23rd
Governor Greg Abbott smashed his way to a 13% victory in 2018, ascending far above the reach of the Democratic blue tidal wave in the very same year that fellow Texan Ted Cruz won re-election by just 2.6%. This was par for the course for Abbott, who has a long career of sweeping victories in the general elections as an Attorney General, Judge, and Governor.
However, there are some early warning signs that 2022 could be different. Abbott was already facing fierce political headwinds for his laissez-faire approach to the coronavirus, as his state was hit hard in the fourth covid wave. Now, those headwinds have accelerated considerably after the Supreme Court declined to review Abbott's abortion law, which bans all abortions after six weeks. On the national level, a Monmouth poll taken after the bill went into effect found only 11% of Americans support a full abortion ban without any exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother.
The fallout has been swift and considerable for Greg Abbott, who has seen his approval rating decline by ten percent in September alone. That doesn't mean Abbott is predestined for an election defeat. He has established a long record as one of the most successful politicians in the Lone Star state in recent memory, and our Governor Forecast still has him as the clear favorite.
Nonetheless, he's likely now to face the first genuinely competitive election of his political career, and the chance of an upset has doubled from just 11% to nearly 22%. Unsurprisingly, his declining standing has encouraged a Democratic heavyweight, Congressman Beto O’Rourke, to reportedly take the plunge and challenge Abbott in 2022.
O'Rourke would be a strong frontrunner in a Democratic primary after running an exceptionally strong race against Ted Cruz in 2018. O’Rourke’s political skills are top-notch, but it’s clear his image and approval rating has taken a hit in Texas, likely a result of his failed Presidential bid. There’s little question that he’s well-positioned to turn out Democratic base voters in large numbers, but the challenge may be to once again win the support of a considerable number of independents. Today, our polling average shows him down by 5% to Abbott, an improvement from a 12% deficit earlier this year.
Senate Forecast
Our 2022 Senate Forecast projects every state, and both parties chances at winning a majority. Updated every day. In 2020, it was one of the most accurate forecast in the nation.
The Virginia Election Enters the Final Stretch
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe continues to be locked into a tight race against Glenn Youngkin that has been remarkably stable. McAuliffe has held a steady lead of 3-4.5% since June. That leaves us with a race that both clearly favors the Democratic party and one that also clearly can be won by the Republican party. No one should be surprised if an upset happens, given that right now about 9% of voters still say they are undecided.
McAuliffe has taken a page out of Gavin Newsom’s playbook, and has put the coronavirus and abortion front and center since the Texas law went into affect. That’s no surprise, as a recent Washington post poll showed voters preferred McAuliffe on those issues over Youngkin by about ten percent.
Our Virginia Governor forecast gives McAuliffe a 72% chance of winning and projects him to win by 6.7%. For more on the race, keep your eyes peeled to the Virginia Forecast, which goes well beyond the broad projections and polling, and breaks down every facet of the race in an accessible and compelling way. We show you how the candidates are doing with each demographic group in the state, and showcase their support across every region in Virginia.
New! The Ohio Senate Forecast
We just launched our first every full page Senate interactive for the Ohio Senate Race. Now, you can see how Tim Ryan and Morgan Harper matchup against the top four Republican contenders for the Senate. Features polling, projections, interactive maps, and approval ratings. Updated daily
Quick Hits:
Ann Selzer is universally recognized as the best pollster in Iowa, and her latest poll shows that Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is poised to decimate Democrat Abby Finkenauer in the general election if he decides to run. That remains an open question for the 89-year-old Senator, who has already served seven terms. Interestingly, the same poll showed voters with a positive impression of the former Congresswoman. If Grassley does decide to retire, then Finkenauer would have a much more viable shot at an upset.
Speaking of Ohio, be sure to check out the new Ohio Senate Forecast. It’s designed using the template of the California Recall, except it showcases eight different potential matchups, showing how the projections and polling change depending on the nominees. Right now, Tim Ryan has around a 30% chance overall of winning. That's the same chance Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff had in January of 2020. For more on Ohio, our very own RacetotheWH Fellow Joseph Brusgard wrote his debut article breaking down why Congressman Tim Ryan gives Democrats a Fighting Chance in Ohio.
Two Republican pollsters have released polls showing New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy leading by just 1-3% points. That's quite a contrast with most of the polling, including a Monmouth poll released yesterday showing Murphy up by 13%. That’s still a decline from Monmouth’s poll in August that showed him up by 16%. Murphy remains the decisive favorite, but the chance of an upset has now risen from 6% to 13%. When new polling is available, you can find it on the New Jersey Governor Forecast, which is updated daily.
Finally, Puerto Rico is on the verge of beating every state in the union on the path to getting 70% of its citizens fully vaccinated. That would be a landmark moment, achieving the standard many experts, including Dr. Fauci, had established as herd immunity. The bar has likely risen as a result of the more infectious delta variant. We are tracking every state's vaccination rate in our Race to Vaccinate America Feature.
Forecast Changes in the Last 30 Days:
Senate:
Over the last month, Republicans' chances of winning the Senate rose from 43.2% to 45.9% as Democrats polling slipped following the pullout of Afghanistan.
Democratic Gains:
Ohio: Tim Ryan’s chances of winning rose from 31.6% to 34.2%.
Wisconsin: Democrat's chances of flipping the Badger State rose from 30.4% to 32.5%.
Republican Gains:
Nevada: Following the first Nevada poll of the cycle, Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt’s chances in Nevada are up from 33.6% to 45.6%. This a Republican's pollster, and while we corrected for bias, the margin was strong enough to shift the race considerably. We’ll have a better idea of the state of the race once we have more polling.
Iowa: If Chuck Grassley runs in Iowa, his chances are up 89.7% to 94.6%
Governor:
Democratic Gains:
Texas: Democrat’s odds of an upset went from 10.5% to 21.0%
Pennsylvania: As it has become clear that Democratic Attorney General Mark Shapiro will be the heavy frontrunner to be the Democratic Nominee for Governor, the party’s chances of holding the Governorship rose from 42.8% to 48.6%.
Republican Gains:
New Jersey: Republicans chances of beating Governor Phil Murphy rose from 6.1% to 13.5%
Generic Ballot: The Generic Ballot polling average has held steady in the last week, with Democrats edge shrinking from 1.7% to 1.6%. A month ago, Democrats lead was 2.5%
Joe Biden’s Approval
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