Texans are Turning Out in Record Numbers, Raising the Prospects of a Biden Upset
Joe Biden speaks at his 2020 Kickoff Rally in Philadelphia
Photo Credit: Michael Stokes via Wikimedia Commons
By: Logan Phillips
Date: October 20th
Texans are voting at a truly remarkable rate unmatched by any voters in any other state in the nation. It’s a stunning turn for a state that has been historically near the bottom in voter turnout. All indications suggest that the Lone Star State is primed to demolish it’s previous turnout record set in 2016.
As of Monday night, voting expert Michael McDonald calculated that 4.7 million Texans have already cast their votes. That’s more than 50% of the total turnout in 2016 – and we are still fourteen days away from election day. The exact makeup of the early vote is hard to estimate, but this is promising news for Biden’s chances of winning Texas.
Winning Texas and its 38 electoral votes would almost certainly guarantee Joe Biden a victory in the electoral college. Biden could even survive losing Nevada and Minnesota if he won Texas, Michigan, and the other states Clinton won in 2016. However, on paper, Joe Biden remains the underdog in Texas. Our polling average shows Joe Biden trailing President Trump by 1.7%, and our forecast gives Trump about a 70% chance of winning the state.
There are two scenarios that provide Joe Biden with his best chance of overcoming his deficit in the polls. First, Biden would need to persuade the lion share of undecided voters to break his way. Alternatively, he can win if voters that support his candidacy turn out in higher than expected numbers relative to President Trump's supporters.
Pollsters attempt to identify what the electorate will look like through a combination of historic election data and from the self-reported interest levels of the voters that they interview. The best pollsters normally have a strong track record at achieving this herculean task, but sometimes they underestimate the likelihood of certain groups to turnout. That was certainly the case in 2016 when most underestimated the degree that white voters without a college degree would vote.
Texas historically has lower levels of voting than most states, and a dramatic escalation in voting rates would be particularly hard for pollsters to project and anticipate. While our forecast is based on the premise that polls have significant predictive value, it also is built around the notion that polling misses in the direction of either candidate are entirely possible, and actually quite frequent. That’s why we gave Biden an almost 30% chance despite trailing Trump in the polls in Texas consistently over the last month.
In this light, the record-breaking turnout in Texas is encouraging news for the Biden campaign, because his pathway to victory looks exactly like what we’ve seen in the first weeks of early voting. If a significant number of voters that have turned out already are individuals that didn’t vote in past elections, particularly Latinos, then Biden might be primed to win the Lonestar state and its 38 electoral votes.
However, we should be crystal clear, we don't have anything approaching clarity on the final result in Texas. We only have limited information on the makeup of voters up to this point, and we still have no idea what the turnout will look like on election day. Such a record-breaking turnout may scare some Trump voters that might have stayed home to show up and cast their ballots.
M.J. Hegar answers questions at the Future Forum on Women in Politics. Photo Credit: Jay Godwin, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
For these reasons, Donald Trump should still be considered the favorite in Texas. Nonetheless, it's also likely that Biden's chance of winning Texas is probably a few points higher than the 30% in our forecast. In the Senate, Democrat M.J. Hegar’s pathway certainly looks more promising than it did two weeks ago. Nonetheless, she is in a much more challenging position than Joe Biden, and our forecast gives her about a 15% chance of victory.
It's entirely feasible that Senator John Cornyn could hold onto victory even if Donald Trump loses in Texas. He's outpolled the President for months, in part because he's put significant effort into winning nonwhite voters, particularly Latinos. Therefore, he's better positioned to survive a sharp rise in Latino turnout.
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