Power Rankings: The Top Ten States Most Likely to Decide the Election
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
By: Logan Phillips
Date: October 31st
We’re entering the final few days of the election, and Joe Biden and Donald Trump are touring the battleground states around the country to make their closing arguments to the voters most likely to provide the decisive electoral votes that will win them the election.
These are the ten states that we think are the most likely to determine the result of the election. You can read far more about the state of the race in each of these states, accompanied by graphics and visuals, right here in the Battleground States Interactive.
Just missing the list:
11. Iowa
12. ME-2
13. NE-2
14. Nevada
I determined the Power Rankings through an analytical framework that gave each state a number based on three factors:
1. How often does the state provide the decisive 270th electoral vote that will win Joe Biden or Donald Trump the election? (65% of the Score)
2. Do both candidates have a competitive shot at winning the state? (25% of the Score)
3. How much does winning the state increase Biden and Trump’s overall chance of winning the electoral college? (10%)
Race to the WH Articles
Interactive Feature:
Race to the WH Interactives
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