After a Rough Election Day, here are the Key Lessons for Democrats.
Photo credit: Michael Stokes, Wikimedia Commons
By: Logan Phillips
Date: November 3rd
Yesterday, voters in New Jersey and Virginia made their voices heard, and the message was clear. Joe Biden and Democrats have lost considerable ground, and odds are high that this holds true across the rest of the country. This does not mean failure is imminent for Democrats in 2022, but it is nonetheless a clear shot across the bow that they will need to step up and deliver more over the course of the next year.
Today, if I were on Biden’s team in the White House, I’d advise Joe Biden to address the nation, even briefly. He should say, “We heard the voices of the voters in New Jersey and Virginia. We need to do better. It’s time to deliver for the American people, deliver on our promises, and move our economy forward. That’s exactly what we’re going to do over the next few weeks.”
That’s what Barack Obama, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and countless other Presidents have done after the midterm – and many of them went on to re-election. Voters tend to be pretty forgiving in America and willing to give their leaders second chances, but they must feel heard.
The Senate Forecast
We project the results of the 2022 Senate Election, and simulate it 50,000 times a day. Last cycle, our forecast was one of the most accurate in the nation.
It was clear that the political environment favored Republicans decisively last night, and such an environment would make winning the Senate a very difficult task. The good news for Democrats is that they have a lot of time to change things around. First, they need to move beyond the intra-party squabbling that has dominated the last few months and pass the Build Back Better Agenda. It will be a historic achievement that will ensure every child has access to pre-school, expand health care, and empower America to be the engine that powers the transition to clean power at home and abroad.
Second, they need to heed the lessons from Virginia. Republicans are the party out of power, and they are almost certain to be fired up in 2022 and turnout to vote in large numbers. A pure turnout-focused strategy may help Democrats reduce their deficits, but it will not be enough to surpass Republicans’ energy in a midterm with a Democrat in the White House. The key to victory for Democrats is to both narrow Republicans’ advantage in turnout, while decisively winning the persuasion battle over swing voters.
Remember, the electorate has changed dramatically in recent years, as white college-educated voters have shifted to Democrats. Those voters are far from assured to stick with the Democratic party unanimously, especially when they are given more moderate choices that don’t belong to the Trump wing of the party like Youngkin and Ciattarelli. Is that a difficult balance to maintain? Absolutely. Nonetheless, it’s exactly what most successful Democratic politicians have done, from Barack Obama and Joe Biden on the national level to Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia.
We are naturally in the very early stages of the 2022 midterm election cycle, which makes it hard to design an ideal message for Democrats to win over swing voters as we don’t know the unique economic and political dynamics of the 2022 cycle. The two most important dynamics, in my opinion, will be the coronavirus and the economy. Biden will have a potentially strong message to unite Democrats around if he passes the cornerstone of his agenda, and if the US can move beyond the worst of the pandemic. Biden would credibly argue that it was his leadership, and the Democratic party's agenda, that empowered America to move beyond the coronavirus crisis and back on the pathway to economic prosperity. Therefore, Democrats deserve two more years in the majority to ensure that America can continue to build on that progress. After several elections cycles dominated by doom and gloom, Americans are desperate for optimism and progress. Historically, when Democrats have successfully seized the mantle of forward-looking change-makers, they have won far more often than they have lost.
Third and finally, they must respect voters’ intelligence. Glenn Youngkin is not Donald Trump, no matter how many times it was said in TV ads. Even many dyed in the wool blue Democrats were rolling their eyes every time a Terry McAuliffe ad came up on TV tying the two together. There are candidates that this strategy likely would have worked on – candidates that endorsed the effort to throw out the electoral college, or that flirted with the most extreme parts of Trump’s agenda. That was not Glenn Youngkin.
