The 2022 Senate Forecast is Now Live
Republican Senator Ron Johnson will be one of the Democrat’s top targets in 2020, but begins the race as the narrow favorite.
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America
By: Logan Phillips
Date: November 22nd
Today, I'm launching our Forecast for the 2022 Senate. This past election, the Race to the WH Forecast was one of the nation's most accurate in projecting the final margins of victory for each state in both the Senate and Presidential elections. On average, my projected margin of victory was closer to the final result than Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, the Princeton Election Consortium, and Rachel Bitcoifer in states where over 95% of the vote has already been counted.
The average difference between the projected margin of victory and the actual margin of victory in states that have counted at least 95% of the vote. That’s every state but Maine, Massachusetts & N.Y.
I'll readily acknowledge that I'm releasing these projections at a far earlier date than any of my competitors. Why are we jumping the gun?
First, I think this information provides a valuable service. One of the most encouraging things about the 2020 election cycle was the historic number of Americans that decided to get involved in politics. I'm delighted to say that I heard from many of my readers that Race to the WH helped them understand the political landscape and that they used it as a tool to decide which Senate races they should donate towards.
We're a long way away from November of 2022, but in my opinion, it's never too early to engage with your democracy. This isn't just about election day - policy changes happen in part due to sustained activism. We might not like it, but politics is often about power, and understanding which Senators are the most vulnerable in re-election will tell you a great deal about which Senators are most likely to be swayed by targeted political activism.
Moreover, my forecast has been designed from the ground up to excel at making predictions far in advance. I've tested it on past cycles, and it consistently gets a surprisingly strong read on the political landscape even two years out. Nonetheless, it would be prudent to take everything here with a grain of salt. We are a long way away from election day, and there will likely be several races that take surprising turns.
Even in this early stages, the Senate map could be altered considerably if an incumbent like Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa decides to retire, or if Democrats can recruit a top tier candidate like Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina. We also can’t discount the possibility of a surprise special election. Democrat’s hopes of a Senate Majority for the first two years of Biden’s Presidency would be dead if it weren’t for the Special Election called to fill Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson’s seat, after he was forced to retire for health reasons in 2019.
In other words, I'd recommend using the forecast at this early juncture as a way to understand the general shape of the race, but understand it can only do so much two years out.
Here are three links to get you started with the Senate Forecast
Race to the WH Articles
Interactive Feature:
Race to the WH Interactives
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