2022 Senate Predictions
The battle for the Senate intensifies. Democrats make gains in Pennsylvania and Arizona, while new polls show Republicans could emerge victorious in Nevada.
Alaska - Can Lisa Murkowski survive a Trump Challenge?
Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski has proven to be one of the most fiercely independent Senators in the nation, and that’s rankled some feathers on the right, including former President Trump. Our new forecast predicts Murkowski’s chance of surviving a Trump-backed challenger in Alaska’s first November Ranked Choice Election!
2022 House Election Predictions
Democrats are on the rise and have a shot at winning the House - but it won’t be easy for them to hold off Republicans, who need to gain just six seats to take the majority.
Georgia Senate - Now Includes Chance of Runoff
If neither Warnock nor Walker gets at least 50% of the vote on election day, the GA Senate race will head to a December runoff. Our GA forecast predicts both the first and second rounds and calculates the odds of a runoff.
Republicans have their eyes set on the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Can they Upset Michael Bennet?
Joe Biden won Colorado by double digits in the 2020 presidential election. Can Republicans claw their way back into contention in the Centennial State?
Top Ten Senate Races Most Likely to Flip in 2022
Over the last few months, Fetterman has emerged as the favorite in PA, making it the most likely Senate seat to flip hands in 2022.
Pennsylvania Governor Polling and Predictions
Attorney General Josh Shapiro will look to build on Pennsylvania’s Democrats recent hot streak in midterm elections.
How will Undecided Voters Break in the PA Senate Race?
The partisan makeup of the remaining voters in PA provides a strong clue as to which candidate is likely to gain in the closing weeks, and who we can expect to be favored entering election day.
Alaska - New Ranked Choice House Forecast
Alaska stunned the nation when they rejected Governor Sarah Palin in favor of Democrat Mary Peltola. Can Democrats pull off another victory? We’ve designed a special ranked choice election forecast to crunch the odds, based on our successful NYC Mayor Ranked Choice forecast from 2021.
Joe Biden’s Approval is Rebounding
Joe Biden’s support has increased by nearly 5% after hitting a low in late July.
NFL 2022-23 Season Predictions
Our NFL Forecast harnesses predictions from the top Sports Betting sites - and statistics from the NFL and ESPN - to simulate the NFL season. Here are the predictions for every team.
The House Just Became Much More Competitive
Democrats just won a blockbuster victory in New York, providing the latest sign that the political battleground has shifted since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Georgia Senate Race is Getting Tighter
In late July and early August, Democrat Raphael Warnock was breaking ahead of Walker, but two recent polls showed Republican Herschel Walker with a very slim lead.
New Hampshire Senate Race Heats Up
Republican General Don Bolduc just won the nomination in New Hampshire in the final primary of 2022, and will now face Maggie Hassan in the general election.
Massachusetts - the Most Likely Governorship to Flip Parties
Can Maura Healey finally break the Bay State AG Curse? Here’s our new interactive prediction for Massachusetts Governor Race.
New York House Race Predictions
The Empire State is ripe with opportunity for both Democrats and Republicans to win new seats - featuring more competitive races than any state other than California.
Democrats had a Big Day in Kansas on Tuesday. Can they Repeat the Trick in November?
Our new Kansas House Race Predictions break down the chance Sharice Davids (D) - one of the two first Native American Congresswomen in history - has of winning re-election in 2022.
Oregon House Race
The Badger State features one of the most competitive slates of House races in the nation. Three of its six districts are in play, which means the result could range from a 5-1 Democratic knockout to a Republican 4-2 edge.
Minnesota House Race Predictions
Democrats came within 4% of winning a special house election in the Minnesota 1st in a red district that leans 14% towards Republicans. That bodes well for Angie Craig, who is the modest favorite in our newly released interactive Minnesota House Race Predictions.
It’s Official: Blake masters versus Mark Kelly for the Arizona Senate
For the third straight election cycle, the Grand Canyon state will feature one of the most important Senate races in the nation. It could easily decide the Senate Majority.
2024 Democratic Primary Polling Tracker (New!)
Track the latest state and national polling for the 2024 Democratic Primary, updated daily.
Race Rating Change: PA Gov. Race is now Lean D
Shapiro has regained his place as the clear favorite, as he has opened up a 7% lead in the polls, highlighted by a Fox News poll showing him up by 10%.
It’s Wes Moore vs. Dan Cox in Maryland
Republicans might have the edge in the national environment, but Democrats have an excellent shot at flipping the Maryland Governorship in November, which would make new Democratic Nominee Wes Moore the first Black Governor in Maryland history
Mandela Barnes will take on Ron Johnson in Wisconsin
In just a few days, the three other top competitors in the Democratic primary dropped out to endorse Barnes, who will almost certainly be the nominee against Ron Johnson. Barnes would be the first black Senator in state history.
Maryland Interactive Predictions for the House
We just launched our interactive House predictions for Maryland House races now that we know the nominees for most of the top congressional races. The key race to watch will be the Maryland 6th, where businessman David Trone faces the first competitive general election of his career.
Colorado Interactive House Races Predictions
Colorado has a new congressional seat, and it’s one of the most tightly contested seats in the nation.
New - Track Fundraising in Every Senate Race
We just published the latest fundraising totals for every candidate running for Senate, which you can now track right here at RacetotheWH.
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has a narrow lead in Nevada
The Senate Forecast now shows Nevada is the most competitive Senate Race, and according to a new Emerson Poll, Cortez Masto would be favored to win if the election were today.
Newly Redesigned: The 2024 GOP Primary
Our GOP Primary Polling Average is much improved, and now includes an interactive polling average that shows the leader in every state. It will be updated from now until the end of the primary in 2024.
We Just Launched a Mega-Update.
Today, we launched more new features and interactive predictions than we’ve ever done on one day before. The most exciting update is for the House, where were are introducing predictions for every house race in the Seven States.
New Mexico House Races
Our new predictions for the New Mexico House Race, where Democrats and Republicans both have an incumbent that they have a fighting shot at beating.
In Arizona, Kari Lake Could Be in Trouble
The former reporter and winner of Trump’s endorsement, Kari Lake was miles ahead of the competition in polling for most of the race. However, Businesswoman Karrin Robson has climbed her way into contention and is now only a few points behind. Now, she has the backing of Governor Doug Ducey.
New - Nevada House Races Interactive Predictions
Democrats rolled the dice in Nevada when they designed the new Congressional maps - which means that all three democratic incumbents now face competitive elections.
Texas Republicans Aim to Expand Their Ranks in Congress
Democrats have narrowed Republicans' advantage in the Lone Star State, but their gains have not been consistent across the board. Last cycle, Republicans made inroads with conservative Hispanics in Southern Texas, and now our interactive Texas House Races Forecast show they have a chance to beat two incumbent Democrats.
California House Predictions
Democrats and Republicans have their eyes set on the Golden Coast, where both parties have pickup opportunities across the state, from Orange County to San Diego.
Mark Kelly Rockets Ahead in Arizona
Republicans’ dreams of a Senate Majority in 2022 will be far more secure if they can capture the Grand Canyon state and beat former Astronaut and current Senator Mark Kelly. However, new polling indicates that Kelly is in the lead at this stage in the race.a
The Supreme Court has Overturned Roe v. Wade. Republicans Could Pay a Steep Political Price
Bans in Abortion will automatically go into affect in swing states across the country, even those controlled by Democratic governors. It could reshape the political battleground.
New York Governor Forecast - Hochul v. Zeldin.
In the Empire State, Governor Kathy Hochul will be facing off against Congressman Lee Zeldin in November.
New! Minnesota Governor - Tim Walz
Tim Walz is running for re-election in Minnesota, and has a razor thin lead in the polls against Republican State Senator Scott Jensen.
Michigan Governor Forecast - Now with Primary
Gretchen Whitmer caught a big break when literally half of the ten person GOP field failed to get enough signatures to qualify for the final ballot, including Police Chief James Craig. Now, it’s an open fight for the Republican primary nomination. Explore to see our forecast projections for the race - and their chance in the general election.
Newly Re-Designed! Simulate the Senate Election
Every day, you can run through a new set of simulations showing what election day could look like. Now, it includes an animation, running through the states as polls close.
Illinois Governor Race- GOP Primary
Republican Farmer and Arch-Conservative Darren Bailey could be poised for a remarkable upset against establishment favorite Richard Irvin in Illinois. The winner will take on J. B. Pritzker in the general election.
New Interactive Feature - Simulate the Playoffs
Run through our interactive, and animated, simulation of the MLB Playoffs, from the Wild Card Round to the World Series.
Finally, we have a Poll for the PA Senate Race.
The first independent poll has been released in Pennsylvania, and the news for Fetterman was far better than expected.
New Feature - Pennsylvania House Predictions
We’ve released our first ever State House Forecast, and it’s for Pennsylvania. Read our interactive predictions for every PA House Race, and find out which party we think will win the majority of seats in the state.
2022 House Election Predictions - California and New Jersey Updated
Now that that California and New Jersey primaries are finished, we’ve updated the House Forecast.
Senate Forecast now Includes Utah’s Evan McMullin
Conservative Independent Evan McMullin is challenging Utah Senator Mike Lee (R). Democrats have to decide to get out of the way, leaving a unique contest between two candidates that would both caucus with Republicans in the Senate.
Primaries - How Have Our Predictions Done?
We’ve been one of the only forecasters to predict the 2022 Senate and Governor Primaries. Here, you can judge our track record. More will be added after every race.
New Mexico Governor Primary and General Election Forecast
Thanks to a strong recruit and surprisingly close polling, Republicans are feeling bullish about their chances of snatching an upset in New Mexico. Here’s our predictions for the primary. So far, we’ve called all sixteen we’ve forecasted correctly.
New and Improved MLB Forecast - Now with Interactive Predictions for All Thirty Teams.
We’ve given the MLB Forecast a major facelift, and built full page interactive forecast individualized for all thirty teams. Updated every day, from now until the last game of the World Series.
Ohio Senate - First Poll for the General Election Shows a Tight Race
We finally have our first Ohio general election poll of the year, and it shows that while Republican JD Vance is ahead, Tim Ryan has a fighting shot at winning an upset in what could end up being one of the more competitive races of the cycle.
The Arizona Senate Race - Forecast and Polling for the Primary & General Election
RacetotheWH now has a perfect 12-0 record in calling primaries in 2022. Here’s our prediction for which Republican is most likely to take win the nomination in Arizona and take on Mark Kelly.
Latest Predictions for the New York Yankees - MLB Forecast
Aaron Judge and Nestor Cortez has led the Yankees to one of their best starts in franchise history. Can they win the World Series in 2022?
PA Governor General Election Forecast
Doug Mastriano has won the nomination, and will now face Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the general election.
New - Interactive Primary Forecast for the Wisconsin Senate
The Democratic field in Wisconsin is stacked with many of the state’s top rising political stars, all fighting for their shot to take on incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson.
Georgia Governor Election - Primary and General Election Predictions and Polling
Governor Brian Kemp could face a rematch of the 2018 election with Stacey Abrams. However, before he can even worry about Abrams, he’ll have to hold off a challenge from David Perdue.
North Carolina Senate Primary is on Tuesday - Here’s Our Predictions.
Congressman Ted Budd has surged into first place in Nroth Carolina. Can Governor Pat McCrory mount a comeback in the closing days and win an upset?
Josh Shapiro (D) is helping Doug Mastriano win the GOP's Nomination in PA
It’s not every day that a Democratic candidate lends a helping hand to a Republican in need, let alone a firebrand like Doug Mastriano. So why is Josh Shapiro trying to help him win?
Oregon Governor Primary - Polling and Predictions
Republicans are hoping to take advantage of the midterm cycle and finally win the Oregon governorship for the first time since the 1980s. Both parties are highly compet
Four Primary Races in the House with National Implications
Redistricting has forced members to run against each other in primaries, with two tight matchups in Michigan and West Virginia.
New Nebraska Governor Primary Forecast (Election on May 10th)
The race to replace Governor Pete Ricketts is heating up. Charles Herbster has been accused by multiple women of sexual misconduct, but he’s still in a virtual tie in our new election projection with conservative farmer Jim Pillen, with the more moderate Brett Lindstrom close behind in third.
At long last, it’s Election Day in Ohio. Will JD Vance Win the Senate Nomination?
JD Vance is now leading the polls heading into election day, but does he have enough support to head off a stunning last minute surge from Matt Dolan? Here’s our preview of the race, and a breakdown of how the Senate Primary Forecast works.
George Senate Forecast - Warnock up in New Polling by SurveyUSA
We just upgraded the Georgie Senate Forecast, with new features including fundraising, and a redesigned polling average showing Warnock/Walker’s support with each demographic group.
New! Arizona Senate Primary Forecast
Mark Brnovich and Jim Lamon are locked in a tight battle to win the Senate primary, with Mark Kelly waiting in the wings to face the winner in November. Now, we’re projecting the results of the primary in a brand new forecast.
New Hampshire Senate Predictions - New Primary Polling
General Don Bolduc has amassed a big lead in the first New Hampshire Primary poll of the election cycle. That’s probably good news for Maggie Hassan, whose best shot of winning is against Bolduc.
Colorado Senate - Can Michael Bennet win Re-Election?
Our new Colorado Senate Forecast launches with a primary forecast. The GOP hopes to put Colorado in play, and it’s their best reach state. Their aspirations might be prematurely dashed depending on the winner of the primary.
Alabama Senate Primary
Mo Brooks was the early frontrunner. However, his support fell after Katie Britt and Mike Durant surged, and Trump abandoned his campaign. Now, whose the favorite to win the tightly contested Alabama Senate primary?
How Joe Biden can Ease the Pain for Americans Struggling from Inflation and High Gas Prices
Biden need only look to his hero FDR for inspiration, and introduce a Windfall Tax on Fossil Fuel Companies, who are making massive profits while hiking gas prices.
The Top Ten Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip Parties in 2022
Could Andrew Cuomo Make a Comeback?
Cuomo became one of America’s most popular and well-known Governors during the early days of the pandemic, but his support cratered after twin corruption and sex scandals. There are now early rumbles of a Cuomo comeback. Is it actually possible? Follow the latest primary polling in NY to find out.
Is Donald Trump's Endorsement No Longer as Valuable in Republican Primaries?
Former President Trump made a series of risky endorsements for the 2022 election cycle. He's on track to lose more than half of the competitive Senate and Governor primaries he got involved in.
Can Governor Laura Kelly survive and secure a Second Term in Kansas?
Laura Kelly is arguably the GOP’s top target in 2022. Kelly is the underdog, but with strong approval ratings and fundraising, she’s got a fighting shot.
In California, Republican David Valadao Will Need Latino Support to Win Re-Election
It’s no secret that Republicans are striving to build on their surprisingly strong showing with Latino voters from 2020, and California’s 22nd district is one of the few competitive majority-Latino districts in the nation.
Can Colorado Governor Jared Polis Win Re-Election in Colorado?
Republicans hope that voters are looking for a change, but even a red wave might not be high enough to reach the Governor’s Mansion in the Mile-High City.
Joe Biden's Response to Putin's Invasion of Ukraine Has Been His Finest Moment
It’s safe to say that when the history of Joe Biden's presidency is written, this moment will be viewed as one of its most consequential chapters.
Eric Greitens Presents Risk to the GOP in Missouri
A surprising new poll by Trafalgar shows Greitens tied with Democrat Scott Sifton. Every other Republican? Up by at least 15%
Florida Senate Race - Predictions and Polling
Marco Rubio has the upper hand, thanks to his strong performance in 2016, and Republicans’ growing strength in Florida. He will face a strong opponent this time around in Congresswoman Val Demings, the former Orlando Police Chief.
House - Race Ratings & Polling by State (New!)
Explore our predictions for every state, and see how we expect the political battleground to shift relative to the last election.
Paul LePage - “Trump” before Trump” - is trying to make a comeback in Maine.
Governor Janet Mills stands in his way. In 2018, Mills became just third Maine Governor in fifty years to win over 50% of the vote.
Is Joe Biden Breaking out of His Approval Rating Slump?
At long last, Joe Biden is primed for a surge as he faces down the greatest challenge yet of his Presidency.
Wisconsin Gov. Evers - Polling and Predictions
Republicans view Wisconsin as one of their best opportunities to win a Governorship. They’ll have to beat Tony Evers, the former Superintendent who prevented Scott Walker from winning his third straight term in 2018.
Five House Races to Watch - From Montana to Texas
Every year, 435 congressional elections are held across the country, which means that some of the most interesting storylines can get lost in the mix. Here are five races to keep a close eye on as the election cycle heats up.
Polling for the House Elections
We’re now tracking the latest polling for all House Races.
Democrats' Chances of Winning the Senate just Rose to 51.5%. Here's Why:
Republicans get a bad break in Arizona, and it raised Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate to their highest levels since their underwhelming performance in Virginia.
Will New Hampshire decide who wins the Senate in 2022?
Senator Maggie Hassan is up for re-election in 2022, and the GOP needs to flip just one seat to take the majority.
Nevada Governor Polls and Predictions
Nevada is one of the top targets for the GOP to flip in 2022. Steve Sisolak pulled off a 4% victory last time around. Can the GOP take the Governor’s Mansion in the Silver State?
Can Democrats Still Win a Senate Majority Even if they Lose the House?
Democrats' success at recruiting better and more experienced candidates than the GOP could give them a real shot at holding onto their Senate Majority even if Republicans sweep the House of Representatives.
Nevada Senate 2022 Polls and Predictions - Catherine Cortez Masto vs. Adam Laxalt
Six years ago, Catherine Cortez Masto became the first Latina Senator in American history. Now she will be running for a second term, in one of the most important races of the 2022 cycle.
Senate Polling - New Design
RacetotheWH is tracking all polling for the 2022 Senate Election. As primaries begin to heat up, the nominees remain far from clear, so we’re showing every potential General Election matchup. Every day, the latest polls are added to the average.
Georgia Governor Forecast - Primary & General
Test out our projections for Stacey Abrams against David Perdue, Brian Kemp, and Vernon Jones
Senate Forecast
Today, Democrats control a razor-thin majority, holding fifty seats out of 100, with the tie being broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. To win the Senate, Republicans need to expand their ranks by a single seat.
Pennsylvania Senate Predictions and Polling
The Keystone State is arguably the most competitive in the nation and features two wide-open primaries. The PA forecast predicts how likely each candidate is to win in over 20 matchups, including the newest entry, Dr. Oz. It also tracks the latest primary polling.
Ron Johnson is a Top Target for Democrats, but He Won’t Be Easy to Beat.
If he runs for re-election, Ron Johnson will be the most vulnerable Republican Senator in 2022. His approval ratings are low, and he represents a hyper-competitive state. However, Johnson faced the same challenges in 2016, and he beat the odds to win re-election. Will 2022 be any different?
Congressman Tim Ryan gives Democrats a Fighting chance in Ohio
Democrats start out as the underdogs in the Buckeye state, but Democratic Primary frontrunner Congressman Tim Ryan has a shot at pulling off a major upset.
The Governor Forecast
A new edition in 2021, the Governor Forecast updated after every poll. Fiercely competitive elections from Arizona to Georgia, and Wisconsin to Kansas.
Interactive Features & Forecast
Mike Pence is the 2024 Front Runner
Mike Pence begins the race as the clear leader in the polls - although his hopes would be dashed if Donald Trump runs again
2020 Highlights
MLB Forecast - Playoff Edition
The MLB Forecast has been upgraded for the playoffs, and now forecast which teams will be the favorite in each round -
2024 Democratic Primary
There’s enough polling now for us to get an early sneak peek into the 2024 Democratic primary - and if Biden doesn’t run again, it could be a competitive race between Harris and Buttigieg.
Tim Ryan versus JD Vance - Ohio Senate Forecast Update
Now with two new features. First, compare how Ryan and Vance are performing in the polls with each demographic group. Second, explore a regional polling map that shows how Ryan and Vance are polling across the state.
Wisconsin Governor Forecast
Republicans have nominated Tim Michels to take on Tony Evers. It’s one of the GOP’s best chances to flip a Governor race.
Race Ratings - Senate
Track our new race ratings for each race, and see how the candidates perform across eight different metrics.
The 2022 Senate Forecast is Now Live
Even in the early stages of the election, we can already get a strong shape of the 2022 political landscape.
Democrats' Hopes of Keeping the Senate in 2022 Might Rest on Winning Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto became the first Latina in history to win election in 2016. Democrats chances of keeping the majority will go up considerably if she can win re-election against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
Florida Governor Forecast
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may have his eyes set on the Republican nomination in the 2024 GOP Primary, but his presidential ambitions likely rest on his ability to win re-election in 2022.
Race to Vaccinate America
Track the latest vaccination rates in every state in the country - including how close they are to herd immunity.
Race for the WH - Republican Primary Edition
In a potential Trumpless primary, Ron DeSantis is emerging as a real threat, trailing only Ted Cruz and Mike Pence.
2022 MLB Playoff Predictions - Latest Updates from the Baseball Forecast
RacetotheWH is now predicting the results of the MLB season! We just launched an interactive MLB forecast that predicts every team’s chances of making the playoffs and winning the World Series. It will be updated daily, from now until the end of the season.
Our 2022 House Election Forecast is Now Live. Here's How It Works.
We tested our forecast on the 2,000 Congressional elections in the last decade. It called 96.5% of them right.